Is a baby boom coming in China ?

  There is a lot of debate going on about the changing of rules that have been announced by the Chienese leaders last month. It is said that 9.5 millions additional birth are expected in the next five years.   Fearing the consequences of a rapidly ageing population, the Chinese government has decided to soften the one child policy. It is said that this mesure is only the first step of the full liberalization of birth control in China. Still, this measure could be insufficient because the Chinese population might now be sharing a new behaviour with other developed countries: denatality.   There is a few months to wait before one can be sure or not a baby boom is coming. Statistics say that there is 79 million women in age of having a child (women aged between 23 to 42 years old), 48% of these women are concerned. If 25% of those women decide to have a second child, it could represent 9.5 millions additional children in a 5 years time span.   The Chinese official seems to be expecting one million additional births every year. There are some signs, in addition to the enthusiam claimed by some potential parents: the stocks of some companies of maternal milk or baby care items, as well as musical instruments manufacturers at the Shenzen market.   The thing is that Chinese parents are capitalizing on their children, and the one child policy has reinforced this trend? They might not want a second children that might prove costly, because Chinese parents are investing a lot on their children’s education. This is one of the main reasons why the baby boom might not be coming. There is as well growing concerns about the cost of life in Chinese large cities. Apartments are more and more expensive, everything is becoming hard to buy and the rising Chinese middle class is beginning to struggle to afford their children’s living and to develop the “guanxi” the relations of the kids in order to find the best possible education and later on a job.   The Chinese society has changed and the country that had once very large families is now used to only one child, the coultry has one of the lowest fertility rate in the world and for the first time last year the Chinese popualtion has been shrinking. Many derogations existed to the one child policy but the families did not usee them. Has China family behaviour or is a baby boom coming ? The next few years will tell.        

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