According to experts, there is going to be a large increase of urban population in the Chinese large cities. What are the current projections ? Shanghai is expected to consolidate itself as the largest city in China, with the highest population,the most attractive for investments. This is expected even to be more important than the projections since the city is now benefiting from a free trade zone which may be a abiratory for the future China. This shows as well the reasons for the booming real estate market that nothing can stop, and that actually a migration from the countryside, this is why it is difficult to calm down the real estate market, and why there is still large needs of accommodation building in Tier I cities. Around Shanghai, Hangzhou and Suzhou are among the most dynamic cities of China and their population is on the rise (Suzhou is 21st).
There is a new pole of dynamism which is being created there, as it is the case in Shenzhen and Guangzhou. Up north, Beijing and Tianjin are another major economic base. There is top investment in all of these cities where there is obviously no real estate bubble. The risk is on Tier II and Tier III cities where the economic rise is slower but major investment is made in real estate. Most of the Chinese urban growth is on the Pacific ocean coast, which means that some areas of China are going to be even more desert, some others are going t be even more concentrated implying pollution problems. The population growth could even be more important than expected, with a change in the familial law that might lead to a baby boom. Future will tell !
First Tier cities :
- Shanghai : 28.4 million people (+8.85 million)
- Beijing : 22.63 million (+7,63 million)
- Shenzhen : 15,54 million (+5,32 million)
- Guangzhou : 15,47 million (+4,99 million)
- Chongqing : 13,63 million (+3,89 million)
- Wuhan : 12,73 million (+3,82 million)
- Tianjin : 11,93 million (+3,4 million)
Second Tier cities :
- Chengdu : 9,97 million (+3,57 million)
- Dongguan : 9,61 million (+2,45 million)
- Nanjing : 8,50 million (+2,83 million)
- Hangzhou : 8,45 million (+3,26 million)
- Harbin : 8,21 million (+2,71 million)
- Shenyang : 7,43 million (+1,96 million)
- Xian : 6,93 million (+2,08 million)
- Zhengzhou : 6,02 million (+2,22 million)
- Qingdao : 5,44 million (+1,76 million)
- Jinan : 5,32 million (+1,74 million)
- Taiyuan : 4,99 million (+1,59 million)
- Kunming : 4,82 million (+1,43 million)
- Dalian : 4,48 million (+1,18 million)
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